The efficacy of Paxlovid is based on the interim analysis and the supporting final analysis of EPIC‑HR, a phase 2/3, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled study in non‑hospitalised, symptomatic adult participants with a laboratory confirmed diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Eligible participants were 18 years of age and older with at least 1 of the following risk factors for progression to severe disease: diabetes, overweight (BMI > 25 kg/m2), chronic lung disease (including asthma), chronic kidney disease, current smoker, immunosuppressive disease or immunosuppressive treatment, cardiovascular disease, hypertension, sickle cell disease, neurodevelopmental disorders, active cancer, medically‑related technological dependence, or were 60 years of age and older regardless of comorbidities. Participants with COVID-19 symptom onset of ≤ 5 days were included in the study. The study excluded individuals with a history of prior COVID-19 infection or vaccination.
Participants were randomised (1:1) to receive Paxlovid (nirmatrelvir/ritonavir 300 mg/100 mg) or placebo orally every 12 hours for 5 days. The primary efficacy endpoint was the proportion of participants with COVID‑19 related hospitalisation or death from any cause through Day 28. The analysis was conducted in the modified intent-to-treat (mITT) analysis set (all treated participants with onset of symptoms ≤ 3 days who at baseline did not receive nor were expected to receive COVID-19 therapeutic mAb treatment), the mITT1 analysis set (all treated participants with onset of symptoms ≤ 5 days who at baseline did not receive nor were expected to receive COVID-19 therapeutic mAb treatment), and the mITT2 analysis set (all treated participants with onset of symptoms ≤ 5 days).
A total of 2113 participants were randomised to receive either Paxlovid or placebo. At baseline, mean age was 45 years with 12% of participants 65 years of age and older (3% were 75 years of age and older); 51% were male; 71% were White, 4% were Black or African American, and 15% were Asian; 41% were Hispanic or Latino; 67% of participants had onset of symptoms ≤ 3 days before initiation of study treatment; 80% had a BMI > 25 kg/m2 (36% a BMI > 30 kg/m2); 11% had diabetes mellitus; less than 1% of the study population had immune deficiency, 49% of participants were serological negative at baseline and 49% were serological positive. The mean (SD) baseline viral load was 4.71 log10 copies/mL (2.89); 27% of participants had a baseline viral load of > 10^7 (copies/mL); 6.0% of participants either received or were expected to receive COVID-19 therapeutic mAb treatment at the time of randomisation and were excluded from the mITT and mITT1 analyses. The primary SARS-CoV-2 variant across both treatment arms was Delta (99%), mostly clade 21J.
The baseline demographic and disease characteristics were balanced between the Paxlovid and placebo groups.
The determination of primary efficacy was based on a planned interim analysis of 754 participants in mITT population. The estimated risk reduction was -6.5% with unadjusted 95% CI of (‑9.3%, ‑3.7%) and a 95% CI of (-10.92%, -2.09%) when adjusting for multiplicity. The 2-sided p-value was < 0.0001 with 2-sided significance level of 0.002.
Table 1 provides results of the primary endpoint in the mITT1 analysis population for the full data set at final study completion.
CI=confidence interval; COVID-19=Coronavirus Disease 2019; mAb=monoclonal antibody; mITT1=modified intent-to-treat 1 (all participants randomly assigned to study intervention, who took at least 1 dose of study intervention, with at least 1 post-baseline visit through Day 28, who at baseline did not receive nor were expected to receive COVID-19 therapeutic mAb treatment and were treated ≤ 5 days after COVID-19 symptom onset).
a. The estimated cumulative proportion of participants hospitalised or death by Day 28 was calculated for each treatment group using the Kaplan-Meier method, where participants without hospitalisation and death status through Day 28 were censored at the time of study discontinuation.
b. Data analysis set was updated after post-hoc removal of data for 133 participants due to GCP quality issues
The estimated risk reduction was -6.1% with 95% CI of (‑8.2%, ‑4.1%) in participants dosed within 3 days of symptom onset, and –4.6% with 95% CI of (-7.4%, -1.8%) in the mITT1 subset of participants dosed > 3 days from symptom onset.
Consistent results were observed in the final mITT and mITT2 analysis populations. A total of 1318 participants were included in the mITT analysis population. The event rates were 5/671 (0.75%) in the Paxlovid group, and 44/647 (6.80%) in the placebo group.
Table 2: Progression of COVID-19 (hospitalisation or death) through Day 28 in symptomatic adults at increased risk of progression to severe illness; mITT1 analysis set1